housing market

The weather may be warm but the housing market certainly isn’t. With increasing inflation and high mortgage rates (the Fed could actually raise interest rates at their next meeting), buyers have been slow to emerge. And with a slow market, more and more sellers are de-listing their homes rather than reducing their asking price.

Would-be sellers are pulling back and housing inventory is declining. Most analysts agree that if the Iran War ends and mortgage rates start to decline, the housing market should open up again.

Even as inflation rise and mortgage rates increase, the housing news is heading in a positive direction. Listing prices have declined for the seventh consecutive month while homes under contract rose for the sixth straight month.

Median listing prices dropped in 2.4% May – the most significant decline since 2017. New listings rose 2.1%, the highest wince May 2022.

Finally, new listings increased dramatically in the Midwest (4.7%) and Northeast (8.6%).

Home viewing is down, there are fewer Google searches for “homes for sale” and mortgage applications are down 14 percent compared to the same time last year. Due to continued rising homes prices – albeit at a slower rate – and fairly rapid mortgage rate increases, a fair number of prospective buyers have been forced to step away from their search.

On the other hand, housing inventory actually rose 8 percent last month compared with May 2021.

And, while some sellers have been forced to come down slightly in their asking price, 54 percent of homes on the market had accepted an offer within two weeks of being listed.

Economists at the Mortgage Bankers Association estimate that with over 1.6 million new households per year being added to the housing market, demand for new homes – both renter and owner-occupied – could be as strong as the U.S. has ever seen. Their recent study, Housing Demand: Demographics and the Numbers Behind the Coming Multi-Million Increase in Households, cites Baby Boomers, Asian-Americans, Millennials and Hispanics as the prime forces in this increased demand.

In fact, there will be 12.3-12.9 million more households age 60 (Baby Boomers) and over in 2024 than there are in 2015. Hispanics alone could account for over 5.5 million new households by 2024.

Overall, the study says that approximately 16 million new households will be driving the housing market in 2014.