Could mortgage rates hit 8%?

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Green Escrow Services | American economy

Analysts say “Yes, it’s a possibility,” but that’s only part of the story. In October 2023 rates climbed to 7.79% but prior to that the last time rates were in the 8% range was in the mid-1990s.

But more important than the rate percentage is that back then the median price for a home was $115,800; currently it’s $424,500. That means would-be homeowners need to put down over 3.6 times as much for a 20% down payment.

Of course, higher mortgage rates also further lock in would-be sellers who would be hesitant to give up their current rate, even if it was in the 5-6% range.

Looking for a starter home? Think the Midwest …

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Family with dog

Let’s be clear: Starter homes ain’t what they used to be. There are approximately 21,000 fewer starter homes available currently than there were in 2019 and they are now at least 30% more expensive.

That being said, there are a number of metro areas, primarily in the Midwest and Rustbelt, where hoes are affordably priced and feature good schools, low crime, and walkable streets. These four lead the way (the percentage of starter homes is included):

  • Kansas City – 37.7%
  • St. Louis – 40.7%
  • Toledo – 42.1%
  • Akron – 39.3%

Looking for a bargain? Try …

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Green Escrow Services | woman home buyer

October is apparently the prime dealmaking month as many sellers who put their houses on the market in the summer are anxious to sell. This means cutting prices or making other concessions. Here are 15 metro areas where there are bargains to be had. The median sale price is included as well as the percentage of homes with price reductions.

  • Boston, MA – $859,431 – 29.7%
  • Chicago, IL – $426,255 – 16.8%
  • Minneapolis, MN – $374,752 – 32.0%
  • New Brunswick, NJ – $459,696 – 11.4%
  • Orlando, FL – $414,726 – 38.0%
  • Cincinnati, OH – $285,811 – 31.9%
  • Columbus, OH – $299,802 – 33.1%
  • Indianapolis, IN – $259,828 – 43.8%
  • Montgomery County, PA – $508,299 – N/A
  • Philadelphia, PA – $294,805 – 36.9%
  • Pittsburgh, PA – $274,818 – 38.1%
  • Cleveland, OH – $149,901 – 31.7%
  • Phoenix, AZ – $454,699 – 37.9%
  • Warren, MI – $224,851 – 30.3%

Slash, slash, slash

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Market News

Often times the desire to move isn’t about upsizing – or downsizing – or better schools or walking access to restaurants or gyms, it is borne of necessity. Events such a new job, marriage or divorce, or any number of life events require a move. So, with mortgage rates near 7%, a glut of inventory on the market, how to sellers react? Well, 20.8% of sellers with listings react by cutting prices.

This means that homes priced on what the market was as recently as one year ago are often adjusted. Analysts point out, however, that the current housing market is more driven by mortgage rates than listing prices. Meanwhile, delistings – pulling a home off the market – remained steady at 5.6%.

And the housing market trend is … ?

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Green Escrow | Real Estate

The only reasonable answer is … who knows?

While mortgage rates continue to climb – with the distinct possibility of higher rates to come – active inventory and new listings are up.Home are moving faster – by one day – than they did a year ago. Finally, the median listing price is down 1.3% year-over-year.

So what does all of this mean? Quite possibly, we’re seeing both buyers and sellers adjusting to the current market with the realization that nothing is going to change drastically anytime soon. If you’re looking to sell, list your home realistically. If your looking to buy, don’t waste your time looking for super bargains. In both cases, be prepared.

No ones going anywhere

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Green Escrow Services | Young Family

According to the U.S. Census Bureau, the nation’s residential mobility rate fell to approximately 11%, the lowest level since tracking began in 1948. This includes both long-distance moves and relocations within cities. Many are choosing to renovate their properties rather than move.

Those who are moving are going to the Midwest, where new homes continue to be built and remain reasonably affordable.

Affordability relief or …?

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Green Escrow | New Construction

A number of new construction listing (approximately 1 in 7) are advertising educed mortgage rates at an average of 3.92%. The current rate is 6.76% and expected to rise.

Clearly, new construction builders are trying to lower the monthly payment as they are also offering closing cost assistance, upgrades, flex cash, cash at closing, and even deals on included appliances.

Analysts say that builders would prefer to offer monthly payment deductions rather than cutting the list price.

More to come?

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Green Escrow Services | Federal Reserve Board

To the surprise of no one (see “Going Up?”), the Federal Reserve voted to raise interest rates by a quarter percentage point. The vote was unanimous (including the Chairman, Kevin Warsh).

Analysts now believe that the Fed will raise rates again before the end of the year.

Needless to say, this did not go over well with President Trump who insisted on Truth Social, “Interest Rates in the United States should be 1%, or less …” Trump had appointed Warsh earlier in the year to replace Jerome Powell.

Going up?

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Green Escrow Services | Federal Reserve Board

With the Federal Reserve scheduled to meet Wednesday, September 16, there is strong belief that they will vote to raise rates based on the most recent trends of strong hiring and the higher than acceptable inflation. This would be the first rate hike by the Fed since 2023.

Currently, mortgage rates are already high – 6.76% – which is the highest they’ve been in 15 months.

A cool August

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Green Escrow | Real Estate News

Well, maybe not temperature-wise for most of the country but the housing market certainly saw a lackluster month.

As usual, there was a mix of the positive and the not-so-positive. Median list prices declined for the tenth straight month but only by -1.3% year-over-year, roughly half from the drop in July. Price cuts were at 20.4%, the same as August 2025. This is the fist time in 2026 that cuts have matched last year’s levels.

Finally after eight straight months of year-over-year growth, pending sales saw a downturn for the first time since last November.